Forecast revisions in 2026 have moved in one direction.
The notable feature of gold forecasting in 2026 has not been any single target. It is the direction of the revisions. Across bank research, analyst polls and the London Bullion Market Association's annual survey, the numbers have been raised rather than trimmed, and the reasoning has been consistent: sustained official-sector buying, geopolitical risk and a reserve system in slow transition.
Reuters reported on 26 January 2026 that spot gold had reached a record high above US$5,000 an ounce, peaking at US$5,092.70, up more than 17 per cent for the year at that point after a 64 per cent rise in 2025. The LBMA's annual precious metals forecast survey, cited in the same reporting, showed analysts projecting a high as far as US$7,150 with an average of US$4,742 for 2026.
Bank targets followed. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 forecast to US$5,400 from US$4,900. J.P. Morgan lifted its long-term forecast by 15 per cent to US$4,500 an ounce in February 2026 while maintaining a US$6,300 year-end 2026 view, citing increased central bank buying, US Treasury divestment announcements and revenue bases shifting from the dollar towards the renminbi. Independent analyst Ross Norman put a 2026 high at US$6,400 with an average of US$5,375.
The Reuters analyst poll tracked the same trajectory. A survey of 30 analysts and traders published in February 2026 returned a median 2026 forecast of US$4,746.50 per troy ounce, the highest annual figure the poll had produced. By 27 April 2026, a poll of 31 analysts and traders had raised the expected 2026 average to US$4,916, with silver at US$78, and concluded that the broader rally would resume once Middle East tensions eased.
The Financial Times had set out the year's framing in its 2 January 2026 report that gold was tipped to extend its record-breaking rally. Seven months on, the second quarter delivered the market's largest quarterly decline in a decade and the forecasts still went up, because the demand data underneath them held: 2,522 tonnes of first-half demand at a record US$380 billion in value, with 289 tonnes bought by central banks in the second quarter alone.
